meanings

Today I started to think about the cost of living. I've noticed in the past few days that daily living items like food and gas have been creeping up.


On the flip side I keep seeing stories in the media about how things are getting better. How the Federal Reserve Chief is calling the possible end of the recession. How retail spending is up, which commonly is interpreted as an increase in consumer confidence in the economy.

I find this strange. If output is going up, and the economy is returning to better levels; then I would expect prices to be stable or go down...

The thing is that the value of the dollar is falling. And that makes me think about what the value of the dollar is based on. Things like the total value of the economy, the total monetary supply and these levels in relation to other currencies in the world. So if the economy was holding steady, and all other things are equal, then we should see the value of the dollar increasing. But that isn't the case. The dollar is weakening, the cost of gold is increasing, the money supply is increasing dramatically. Some report that while we're seeing some strong gains in the stock exchanges in the US, we are actually see much stronger positive movement in other foreign markets. Job losses continue to mount and companies are showing no signs of hiring. Companies are cutting hours and instituting furloughs. How is it possible to claim that the production of this country is increasing?

I wouldn't doubt that there has been some increases in spending. I for one have increased my household spending out of necessity. It's time to get the house ready for the winter. But is it really realistic to claim the end of the recession with the economic signs all around us? Isn't it possible that the increase in retail spending was higher than expected because of rising prices due to the increases in the money supply and weakening of the dollar versus other economies?

The signs that point to inflation.

And the problem is that the government and the federal reserve (which is not a government entity) will not admit that there is inflation until the CPI index is running up. By then it will be too late. But what we really aren't told is that inflation benefits the government and the banks. Inflation helps those who owe. Debtors. As the value of the dollar declines our debts are fixed. If I bought the house I live in for $100,000, then I pay $100k. Even if the value of the dollar I use to pay the mortgage is half of what it was. Since the government is in over its head in debt letting inflation set in will allow for a quicker pay down of the debt without having to raise taxes. Banks love inflation since it tends to transfer real wealth from lower classes to upper classes. Those in the economy who own large amounts of real property like land or commodities will see the "biggest" gains since the value of real goods will hold value as the currency declines. But it really sucks for us, the tax payers as our wealth is drained by the government to pay the debts it makes in our name.

This brings me back to Bernanke and those who want to tell us that the worst is over. People like Peter Schiff and Ron Paul were laughed at in '05 and '06 as they predicted the bursting of the housing bubble caused by the federal reserves meddling with the market. They knew that the unnaturally low interest rates were pumping too much money in the the markets that lead us to our peaks. It isn't the first time that the fed has caused a bubble that lead to a recession. These same people are also pointing out that this massive increase in spending and stimulus that will really kick in next year is merely an attempt to reinflate the bubble we created. There is no real value in what happened in the housing market. It was driven by cheap money and speculation. Another jobless recovery doesn't seem possible at this time. At least in my opinion. As our position in the global economy weakens the cost to borrow for the country will rise and interest rates will have to follow suit. The economy will grind to a halt as the cost of business increases yet again.

All the while our federal government seeks to shoulder the costs of health care and force the price of energy to "skyrocket". Will our government continue to spend and fiddle as Rome burns? Will they continue to undermin our economy? Will we let them?